Kyiv’s forces are due to receive the aircraft within weeks, but analysts say they are unlikely to be a game-changer.
The main benefit to the F16s is that they have radar and detection abilities comparable to the aircraft they’re up against. In warfare between aircraft a lot of it comes down to who sees who first and that typically happens many kilometers out.
The aging soviet junk that the Ukrainians are flying have essentially half the detection range as the newer Russian stuff.
But yeah, the time to give them F16s was back before their planned summer offensive. Hesitance by the Biden admin has cost Ukraine the initiative they had. The jets won’t turn that around on their own.
The Ukrainians have been pretty busy with shaping operations in Crimea, i.e. blowing up as much air defence as they can. The F-16s could have a real impact on making Russia’s position there untenable.
While I also would like to see bolder action in support of Ukraine, I don’t think they would have been sufficient to enable that offensive to succeed. Unless a whole lot were given. Personally I don’t think that attack into heavily fortified, deep defenses backed by available post-mobilization Russian reserves was ever worth it, though I understand why they wanted to try.
Ultimately though, I don’t think the war will be ended by gaining/losing ground anyway, it’ll be ended by political and/or economic exhaustion of one of the sides. Towards this end, the planes will help.
F-16s will also use the same hard point connections as the munitions Ukraine is receiving from the west. Most weapons like Storm Shadow have to have an adaptor or temp setup to use them on Soviet aircraft.
The gains for ground work will be huge. Also, parts are much easier to receive than make, which will reduce downtime for each plane. Another benefit is to use modern western radar and ECM instead of whatever was native to Russian systems. It’s a lot of small gains that add up to a very real change in the air war over Ukraine. Whether the Vipers can reduce Russia air superiority or not will remain to be seen, but anything is better than what’s happening right now.
And they could establish data link with the Saab aew that Sweden has promised
i read on another article that basically says that the ukraine still using the same tactic to avoid detection (flying low) thus limiting the range of f16 missiles. and they still lacking the means to counter russia glide bombs. it seems they really need to reach air supremacy to effectively use f16 to its fullest potential.
Whistling in the dark forest by Russia’s buddies.
