The big question is whether the distance between voters’ positions and the two candidates […] was a stronger predictor of how they voted if they said the issue was important to them.

The answer? Not really. “We find little evidence of a consistent role played by subjective importance,” […] the evidence was “very qualified” across a wide range of issues and elections.

[…]

These findings fit with a long vein of research showing that people are not good at articulating the reasons for their choices. So they may say – and honestly feel! – that an issue is important. But when they say that, they are not revealing that this issue will affect how they vote. The same problem emerges even when pollsters directly ask people whether something would change their vote.

This study basically reinforces the theory that people vote based on vibes and personalities of candidates and not on policies they support.

Which is quite honestly a shame.