Planets suck though. IMO we should be developing space mining for near Earth objects ASAP. One well chosen object could have more mineral wealth than all wealth in human history combined. Gravitational differentiation of any body large enough to be round is a scarcity inducing tyrant. We have what little remains exist from small body collisions that have not managed to get subducted geologically recently. We do have access to objects that were once part of the core of such a differentiated body. The moon has more wealth on its surface because of 4.5 billion years without plate subduction to steal away heavier elements after the surface solidified. However we’re still stuck inside a smaller gravity well. The wealth of staying in space with all the resources is the real future of humanity. Going to Mars is completely pointless. Build an O’Neill cylinder and humanity will evolve as much as the conquest of the Americas.
We should establish a moon base first and foremost. From there we could hopefully refine rocket fuel from the lunar regolith and afterwards we start mining the asteroids. 1/6 earth gravity well is very tempting for a base. Makes the resources that much cheaper to recover.
It is a lot of infrastructure and fuel. If you’re going to the moon, mine Luna. The moon is nearly impossible to orbit sustainably long term due to gravitational anomalies. Plus there are a large number of negatives to the moon that are not as much of a problem in cislunar space. The biggest issue will likely be micrometeorites. The larger body will attract more of these.
I know people talk about the volcanic tubes, but I believe this will not be viable in practice. The lack of atmospheric oxidation and weathering will likely turn these places into untenable death chambers. Any habitat will inevitably generate atmospheric gas leaks and massive temperature variations, along with other environmental factors. The impact that these will have when the surrounding regolith and geology have never been exposed to large scale oxidation or other forces will be very significant and unlike anything on Earth. I picture this like trying to build a long term camp site in a glacial cave that is built on a volatile gas upwelling location hidden under a thin permafrost. I would much rather see a station built around the near Earth astroid where in situ resources can be used more directly. I think large scale infrastructure will be hard, and ultimately, most of humanity will end up in cislunar space as this is ultimately the cheapest and most efficient in terms of engineering problems.
My biggest question is if it is more practical to develop full elemental cycle integration with lifw, or some kind of massive autonomous system. I imagine it will likely come down to a need to increase complexity of systems and develop a hybrid approach.
