As Europe grapples with the growing threat of tropical diseases brought by the Asian tiger mosquito, a research breakthrough led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) is enabling scientists to accurately predict towns across the continent where there is a high risk of dengue fever.

The spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) has caused local outbreaks of dengue in France, including Paris, as well as Italy and Spain, spreading the virus by biting returning travelers who were infected while abroad and then transmitting it to other people in the area…

But the UKCEH-led advanced high-resolution modeling divides Europe as well as eastern Asia and North America into 10km squares, providing daily risk assessments for each area. The new research involves a more detailed study of the entire life cycle of a mosquito, examining the impact of local climate and competition for food on species traits such as how long it lives and the number of eggs it lays. This provides more accurate assessments of where, when and for how long there are likely to be local dengue cases.

The new modeling has already correctly predicted the locations of several towns that have gone on to have their first dengue outbreaks this year, including La Colle-sur-Loup, Baho and Montpellier-Pérols in southern France, and Vila-seca, in northeast Spain…

So far, the French capital is the most northerly place in Europe where there has been a local outbreak of dengue fever, and it also had a locally acquired (autochthonous) case of chikungunya disease in July after someone was bitten by an infected Asian tiger mosquito.

Asian tiger mosquito eggs have been found in south-east England, but the species has not yet become established in the UK. However, the research team warns this is likely to change in the future as the UK feels the effects of climate change.

Role of vector phenotypic plasticity in disease transmission as illustrated by the spread of dengue virus by Aedes albopictus

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52144-5