How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election
www.nytimes.com
A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/14036535

In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.

In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.

This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.