Is Thom Yorke hiding behind Rick Wakeman’s dad?
I sympathize, most of my work falls under the category of ‘creative’ too. But this conversation about AI & robotics needs to quickly move to UBI, or universal access to basic needs like health and housing. The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work, but for pennies on the hour & a free market economy isn’t viable any more. This approach doesn’t acknowledge that; it still assumes a free market economy can work in the future.
The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work
I really don’t think we are anywhere close to this. I don’t even expect to see it in my lifetime.
If AI/robotics follow the typical s-curve of technological adoption, I think the 2030s is most likely. We already seem to be at the beginning of that s-curve in 2024.
The fields of AI and robotics exists for much longer. The first industrial robot was installed in 1961. The first artificial neural network in 1958. I’d argue the s curve started there. Even humanoid general purpose robots existed in 1986 with Asimo for example. But with such a long lead time, I expect reaching the top of the curve to take multiple decades.
If you’re assuming that we have the technology now in its prototypical early-adopter phase then your estimate of 2030 is for adoption of LLMs and generative AI.
We don’t have even prototypical AGI yet, and it is AGI which is necessary to “do all the work.” The s-curve of technological adoption assumes that the technology exists at the start of the curve. This is what I meant when I said “I really don’t think we are anywhere close to this.”
I work in manufacturing environments and the technology is further than i want to admit but luckily businesses NEVER spend the money for the full package. It’s always half DIY at best. It’s always a disaster right around the corner.
Well the world isn’t giving up capitalism until it collapses, so the conversation still makes sense to be stuck around not letting the robots do all the fun stuff while we’re stuck doing pointless busy work to prove we should continue to exist.
That is one way of looking at this. An alternative view is to say - “The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work, but for pennies on the hour” - will probably arrive by the 2030s. Every day we waste on pointless conversations that are destined to go nowhere, is a day we waste planning for the future. Worse than that, the chaos and despondency the AI/jobs threat creates, adds to the general conditions that are making the rise of fascism and the far right more prevalent.
You’re assuming the people that own the machines have any interest in keeping us alive to reap the benefits of a mostly automated workforce
the people that own the machines have any interest in keeping us alive
I never take ideas like that seriously. Even in sci-fi, the concept seems wildly fanciful.
Have you ever heard the term Superfund site or heard of the company Exxon?
Companies can, will, and have killed people for far less at the behest of the rich and powerful. If they get a scenario where they think they no longer need us, they’ll make it happen.
But this conversation about AI & robotics needs to quickly move to UBI
Indeed. Any ideas for growing [email protected]?
