I posted about it over in [email protected], but I don’t think that betting markets are better predictors, because “true believers” can make them irrational:
Yeah he wants you to think that so you go all in on Trump. It just so happens to simultaneously fill his wallet.
Yep!
Kalshi’s presidential election market gives Trump a striking 26-point lead over Vice President Harris. This type of forecast is probably more accurate than traditional polling at this point. The rise of Smart Phones, CID, CNAM, Call Screening etc. has made the methods used in traditional polling less and less reliable.
Let’s hope not, trump is a fascist moron.
I listened to the Freakeconomics episode on this the other day. Rest assured if Stephen Levit thinks its a solid predictor than its likely not.
