The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.

The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095.

…

Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications, it is important to monitor the flow and EWS [early warning signs] from direct measurements.

  • @[email protected]English
    6•1 year ago

    Why is it, this concerns me more than most parents I know? I don’t have any kids to worry about, I think it would be nice if the human race kept on after I go… I just don’t understand where the alarm is on this issue with normies? They just don’t seem to give a shit.

    All those wankers in Parliament, they nearly all have kids and families as well (Bozo has at least 8) and none of them have lifted a finger. I guess they think the oil money will save them or something.

  • klz
    5•1 year ago

    the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095

    Looking at the date this article was published, it’s possibly worse than this makes it seem. This was submitted in March. If we look at the sea surface temperature graphs for this year you will see from March this year it goes crazy.

    https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

    Screenshot

  • @guriiniiEnglish
    4•1 year ago

    It’s a very broad range. These predictions are usually too conservative. For years we’ve seen these predictions occur much sooner than expected.