The chances of intelligent life emerging in our universe—and in any hypothetical ones beyond it—can be estimated by a new theoretical model which has echoes of the famous Drake Equation.

More than 60 years on, astrophysicists led by Durham University have produced a different model which instead focuses on the conditions created by the acceleration of the universe’s expansion and the amount of stars formed.

It is thought this expansion is being driven by a mysterious force called dark energy that makes up more than two thirds of the universe.

The new research does not attempt to calculate the absolute number of observers (i.e. intelligent life) in the universe but instead considers the relative probability of a randomly chosen observer inhabiting a universe with particular properties.

Drake equation explained

Dr. Drake’s equation was more of a guide for scientists on how to go about searching for life, rather than an estimating tool or serious attempt to determine an accurate result.

Its parameters included the rate of yearly star formation in the Milky Way, the fraction of stars with planets orbiting them and the number of worlds that could potentially support life.

By comparison, the new model connects the rate of yearly star formation in the universe with its fundamental ingredients, such as the aforementioned dark energy density.

The study involved scientists at the University of Edinburgh and the Université de Genève.

Source Paper:

The impact of the cosmological constant on past and future star formation

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/535/2/1449/7896079#493432784