SpaceNews notes prominently at the top, “Advertiser content: This content was commissioned and paid for by the sponsor”. “Brent Prokosh is a Senior Affiliate Consultant at Euroconsult, based out of its Montreal office. Sponsored by Euroconsult. The Euroconsult Group is the leading global strategy consulting and market intelligence firm specialized in the space sector and satellite enabled verticals…”. I have no idea who they might be.

I don’t like to quote so much, but there’s a lot of data and the original article (“The Information”) is paywalled.

What I find interesting is that they expect that the rest of the launch business will get them $4.8 billion.

SpaceX has told investors that it expects to roughly double its revenues in 2023 to upwards of $8 billion (from $4 billion in 2022) as reported earlier in July by The Information.

If SpaceX succeeds in achieving this revenue forecast, Euroconsult estimates that upwards of 40% of these revenues, or $3.2 billion, could be attributable to the broadband connectivity services of Starlink …

Diving deeper into the numbers, roughly 75% of Starlink’s projected 2023 revenues would likely be derived from the mix of service subscriptions across its residential, business and mobility segments, with the 25% balance being driven by hardware sales associated with gross subscriber additions.

In terms of active subscribers, Starlink’s base is expected to double from and estimated 1.1 million in January 2023 to ~2.2 million by the end of 2023, driven by a mix of factors including aggressive hardware price discounts, new distribution channels and a continued expansion of available capacity supply and the number of active countries. As an example of hardware price promotions, Starlink is actively offering its standard-grade user terminals for as low as $150 for residential subscribers in rural Canada.

Overall, the residential (consumer) segment is estimated to dominate Starlink’s subscriber mix, accounting for >85% of active subscriptions, including “roam” (formerly called “RV”) portability plans. The pace of subscriber additions, reported by SpaceX at as high as 3,500 new subscribers per day in the spring 2023 timeframe, is expected to moderate over the course of the year due to higher levels of addressable market penetration and continued capacity constraints in high demand areas such as the U.S.

While Starlink has yet to publicly disclose the number of subscribers for its higher revenue per user “business” plans, the segment could account for 10% to 15% of active subscribers given indicative take-up for civil government projects and corporate networks.

A bit of discussion about penetration in the maritime market, but they haven’t gotten much business in aircraft.

They are no longer insisting on exclusive distribution, but partnering with big-box retailers, “nearly all of the world’s largest maritime VSAT service providers”, et cetera.

Based on the aforementioned 2023 revenue estimates, Starlink could reach an annual revenue run-rate of up to $4 billion by early 2024, however the pace of growth observed to date in 2023 will be challenging to sustain. Notably, residential subscriber growth will almost certainly slow in the absence of service price reductions and/or a meaningful increase in the pace of launches of its higher capacity Gen2 satellites, which is only expected to occur alongside the transition to operational flights for Starship. As such, hardware revenues may observe a declining path if gross additions slow or fall from 2023 levels.