usually these types of actions are to measure the consequences and the response, a trial run for something bigger that also lets you see how much of a pushover your adversaries are and how much they’ll let you get away with.

They are lashing out to look stronger to their own population. They’re doing small stuff like this because they’re weak and don’t want an actual fight

This attack allegedly came from a “shadow fleet” that is so poorly maintained, that it must be pretty cheap to operate. Meanwhile, NATO responded by deploying real warships that are a lot more expensive. So on the surface it seems like a good trade monetarily.

But I think Russia is falling for a version of the gambler’s ruin. The gambler’s ruin says that for beating the casino, a positive expected return is not enough. You also need enough bankroll to survive volatility swings. Most gamblers have significantly less capital to risk than the house, so the house can still win in the long run by wiping the gambler out completely.

Russia is in a similar situation. They won the money trade on this round, but NATO is not close to being economically strained, either. They have much deeper pockets than Russia.