95% will continue to use.

Overtime I think we’ll continue to see the site self sabotage itself and lose users but it’ll be many years before something like fediverse overtakes it in user count.

Those are some optimistic numbers.

98% continue using, 1% stop, 1% move fediverse

Immediately upon the death of 3PA:

• 1% stop browsing
• 1% move to Lemmy
• 98% wonder what all the fuss was about

That said, 6 months down the line:

• 3% move to Lemmy
• 60% have forgotten about it entirely
• 37% have gradually stopped using Reddit as it grew into a bland, boring cesspool of spam and reposts

I think we’ll see a healthy influx of users here, but ultimately reddit will chug along. However, I think over time it will just become a closed off, set in stone, extremely valuable database of human experience and perhaps reddit will rebrand itself in some way. Maybe in 20 years they’ll be selling Reddit Encyclopedias door to door.

Reddit: Encyclopedia of Man (2010s)™️

Fediverse isn’t ready for that many users yet. There are bugs, front end is either entirely missing (kbin has no app) or missing features, and scaling issues. The non technical issues that I’ve seen so far - there just isn’t enough content. Half of “all” is still talking about reddit or lemmy.

The number of users that signed up for lemmy and kbin right now is just a rounding error to reddit. It’s a good start, but there’s a ways to go before this can replace reddit.