The sheer candor about fragmentation from this collection of executives is difficult to ignore, however, given just how often we see big, bold tech claims coming from Chinese media, but it aligns with an increasingly obvious challenge. China’s most advanced domestically produced DUV lithography system, from Yuliangsheng, is technically comparable to ASML’s Twinscan NXT:1950i — a machine ASML originally designed for 32nm-class processes back in 2008.
Even if SMIC manages to integrate that tool into a 28nm process by 2027, reaching sub-10nm would require redesigned scanners and several additional years of development. A prototype EUV machine has reportedly been completed in a Shenzhen lab, but EUV’s commercial viability requires solving yield challenges that took ASML nearly two decades to overcome after its own prototype.
That’s all before we’ve even considered ASML’s accumulated know-how as, in Yangyuan’s words, “merely the integrator.” The company’s EUV dominance rests on a supply chain of more than 5,000 subcontractors, along with decades of high-volume manufacturing data. No amount of reverse engineering can quickly replicate that. While it’s true that Chinese firms have made real gains in adjacent equipment categories — Naura, for example, is one of the world’s top ten semi equipment vendors by revenue — lithography remains well out of reach.
It took ASML decades to do this, and while I won’t discount a genius level breakthrough, I doubt stealing and reverse engineering is going to shortcut the lead that much. I wouldn’t be surprised if they keep on the track they are that by 2035 they may finally be able to over take ASML though.
