Warming relations between the two pariah states could foster a mutually beneficial weapons and technology trade and raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the North Korea-Russia relationship was characterized by narrow transactionalism and diplomatic misconnects despite the legacy of close relations that existed between North Korea and the Soviet Union through the 1970s.

In 2015, Vladimir Putin invited Kim Jong Un to Russia’s commemoration of the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II, but Kim was not yet ready to engage in summitry at that time. Russia also backed UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions against North Korea through 2017 and failed to make headway in identifying mutually beneficial areas of economic cooperation. The 2019 summit between Kim and Putin, held months after the failure of the Hanoi summit between Kim and former U.S. President Donald Trump, resulted in Putin’s solo media briefing on the meeting, reflecting the failure of the two sides to find compatibility in their respective interests.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has provided a basis for the convergence of political needs and material interests between the two countries. North Korea has provided political support to Russia by recognizing the independence of Russia-installed governments in breakaway provinces in Ukraine under Moscow’s control. Russian political support for North Korea provides the latter with protection and impunity from further UNSC condemnation for long-range missile and satellite launches that contravene UNSC resolutions.