This has got to be the most jilted view of prediction markets. I looked at them the day before election day, and Polymarket and UK betting sites both had odds that ended up closer to accurate than any polling I saw.
Kalshi and Polymarket were second only to FiftyPlusOne from analysis I’ve seen so far. I’d say the mess this guy got into was combing ‘the polls’ into one score.
And this is really just one data point of a single election event. Being able to adapt to election and electorate changes is the real question.
Who is downvoting us both?
Anyway, yeah, combining polls like this is like making a fruit salad and planting it to grow a cherry tree, then positing about how agriculture is bullshit when it doesn’t work.
Betting odds have been an actuate predictor for decades. 2016 was the only exception that im aware of in this century.
