Something that I mentioned to a Ukrainian colleague who asked for my take as someone who is coming from Cyprus is also the effect of time on a conflict.
A politician can make passionate speeches about how faits accomplis will never be accepted and that justice cannot be anything other but the return to the previous condition and so on, but at the end of the day most Greek Cypriots understand that almost a century later, you cannot start kicking people out of the houses they lived for three generations without becoming the bad guy, even if the grandfather stole that house in the aftermath of an illegal war. You can’t punish the grandchild for the sins of the grandfather, you need to find a way to work with them.
So, for Ukraine, the moral of the story is that if it becomes a frozen conflict, every next attempt to settle it will require more compromises on humanitarian grounds. And so far, I think they get it, since they do not consider a ceasefire. But if they end up having to agree to a ceasefire, they should be very suspicious of politicians who tell them at there’s no need to rush to pursue a settlement because “in the future we can negotiate something better”. With every passing decade, fewer and fewer aspects will be up for negotiation at all.
Same with Israeli settlements in Palestine lands.
That is not even the worst, Russia sitting at the doorstep and wanting to invade again as the first chance comes is much worse. The population in the east of Ukraine is anyways completely brainwashed and since many years. There is a big difference in the mindset of the people who live in the recently occupied areas of Ukraine and the once occupied 5 years ago in the first push
Germany has been reunited fore more than 30 years ago, but you can still see a heavy division. Economically, politically and culturually. East Germans get paid less, are viewed as lazy and primitive by many West Germans and in turn East Germans heavily favour populist parties, recently quite dangerously the far right AFD. Aside from a few spots e.g. Saxony Valley, the economy is in shambles in the East, many of the young people flee west for better economic perspectives, leaving weak states with angry elderly population.
I don’t think the comparison between Germany and Ukraine holds up:
Germany was divided for the duration of 45 years and had a literal wall dividing them physically for 28 of these years. German economy in the east was not based on capitalism. An entire generation and their children grew up in communism.
In contrast: Ukraine was split for the duration of 1 or up to 9 years, currently. Both sides of Ukraine use an economy based on capitalism. They are fed propaganda, but not of a completely different societal system.
Aside from a few spots e.g. Saxony Valley, the economy is in shambles in the East
The economy in the states of the former East is pretty comparable to the rural regions in the German south-west (Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate). The economy is split rural vs. urban, not strictly East vs. West. The economy in the states of the former East (and poorer parts of the former West) is 20 to 30 percent below average German GDP per capita. Other countries do have similar or bigger economical differences between their cities and predominantly rural regions regions (e.g. France or the USA). Please don’t get me wrong: This is an issue, but it is not a uniquely German issue.
I am not saying it’s would be bad as Germany, but it would still be bad and an issue to deal with. The majority of fighting taking place in Eastern Ukraine, hence destroying a lot of infrastructure is not helping either. It’s certainly something Ukraine should already think about now, even if the end isn’t yet in sight.
