Sometimes the bad guys win. But you have to keep fighting or they always win. Putting this up early so I can spend some time away from football. See you suckers tomorrow.
Here are my Week 9 results. 100% resume-based computer poll, so your ranking is determined based on your wins/losses compared to everyone else’s wins/losses. I’ve included my Top 35 this week so people can see who is on the cusp:
- Florida State Seminoles (LW: 2) (+1)
- Oklahoma Sooners (LW: 1) (-1)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (LW: 7) (+4)
- Michigan Wolverines (LW: 6) (+2)
- Texas Longhorns (LW: 5) ( - )
- Washington Huskies (LW: 3) (-3)
- James Madison Dukes (LW: 9) (+2)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (LW: 11) (+3)
- Utah Utes (LW: 17) (+8)
- Ole Miss Rebels (LW: 12) (+2)
- Liberty Flames (LW: 13) (+2)
- Air Force Falcons (LW: 14) (+2)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (LW: 8) (-5)
- Georgia Bulldogs (LW: 18) (+4)
- Oregon State Beavers (LW: 15) ( - )
- Missouri Tigers (LW: 19) (+3)
- North Carolina Tar Heels (LW: 4) (-13)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (LW: 16) (-2)
- Oregon Ducks (LW: 25) (+6)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (LW: 10) (-10)
- Louisville Cardinals (LW: 20) (-1)
- LSU Tigers (LW: 22) ( - )
- Wisconsin Badgers (LW: 23) ( - )
- Tulane Green Wave (LW: 26) (+2)
- Georgia State Panthers (LW: 33) (+8)
- Duke Blue Devils (LW: 21) (-5)
- USC Trojans (LW: 24) (-3)
- Troy Trojans (LW: 28) ( - )
- UCLA Bruins (LW: 31) (+2)
- Wyoming Cowboys (LW: 27) (-3)
- Kansas State Wildcats (LW: 36) (+5)
- Toledo Rockets (LW: 47) (+15)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (LW: 34) (+1)
- Minnesota Golden Gophers (LW: 37) (+3)
- Tennessee Volunteers (LW: 30) (-5)
Thoughts on this week:
- I made some minor algorithm tweaks…it didn’t majorly affect anyone’s rankings but I think it improved results overall. The change gives a larger bonus to wins, as I felt some teams were being ranked too highly based on their “quality losses” compared to teams with good-not-great wins.
- My algorithm is designed to not be “sticky”, meaning each week is a completely fresh ranking based on not only this week’s results but back-calculating every week’s results so far this season. That’s why you see a lot of teams sliding around +/-5 ranks each week…this is intentional, for better or for worse. These small jumps usually slow down later in the season.
- The top 5 are all ranked very close together, and there is a pretty big drop after No. 8 Alabama.
- James Madison continues to creep up. Their match-up this week gives them another chance to rise (their opponent No. 77 Old Dominion outranks Washington’s opponent No. 114 Stanford), and another opportunity Week 10 with an epic Top 25 showdown versus (checks notes) No. 25 Georgia State. After that their schedule gets softer so they’ll have theoretically hit their ceiling. All that to be said…NCAA should do the right thing and let them go bowling, regardless of your thoughts on where they should be ranked in the Top 25, they deserve a post-season.
- Georgia’s descent-through-victory has probably ended, and their floor seems to be ranked 14. The +4 bump they got this week is due to the algorithm change I mentioned above. Going forward their schedule finally stiffens with No. 41 Florida this week, followed by No. 16 Mizzou and No. 10 Ole Miss. Now we get to start seeing what they’re actually made of.
- I’m looking forward to Michigan beating Ohio State and then Penn State beating Michigan, thus creating a highly ranked circle-of-suck atop the Big Ten East.
- The biggest loser this week was San Diego, who dropped 23 ranks after falling to Nevada. Biggest gainer this week was Virginia, who rose 30 ranks after pulling the upset over a Top 5 North Carolina.
My ballot. Computer poll. Michigan has drowned so many ferrets the computer has put them in a league of their own.
Full ranking:
Rank Change Team Record Points 1 - Michigan 8-0 626 2 +1 Florida State 7-0 532 3 +4 Alabama 7-1 495 4 - Oklahoma 7-0 490 5 +5 Ohio State 7-0 478 T6 +2 Washington 7-0 477 T6 +3 Texas 6-1 477 8 -3 USC 6-2 475 9 -7 Notre Dame 6-2 471 10 +7 LSU 6-2 448 11 +5 Oregon 6-1 439 12 - Penn State 6-1 438 T13 -7 Georgia 7-0 426 T13 +1 North Carolina 6-1 426 15 +10 Missouri 7-1 411 16 +3 Iowa 6-2 410 17 +11 Rutgers 6-2 403 18 +3 Duke 5-2 394 19 -9 Texas A&M 4-3 393 20 +20 Kansas State 5-2 391 21 -8 Oregon State 6-1 387 T22 +12 Ole Miss 6-1 381 T22 +11 Wisconsin 5-2 381 24 -9 Louisville 6-1 378 25 +1 Texas Tech 3-5 376 26 +23 UCLA 5-2 375 27 +4 Liberty 7-0 370 28 -6 TCU 4-4 369 29 -11 Maryland 5-2 367 30 - Tennessee 5-2 366 31 +9 Miami (FL) 5-2 361 32 -12 Arizona 4-3 360 33 +10 Utah 6-1 358 T34 +4 Toledo 7-1 352 T34 -11 Fresno State 6-1 352 T34 +2 Miami (OH) 6-2 352 37 +2 Ohio 6-2 347 T38 -14 Florida 5-2 346 T38 +21 South Alabama 4-3 346 40 +2 Arkansas 2-6 344 T41 +5 Air Force 7-0 340 T41 +25 SMU 5-2 340 43 -16 Colorado 4-3 334 44 +4 Northern Illinois 4-4 332 45 -16 Kansas 5-2 330 46 +12 New Mexico State 5-3 327 47 -15 Virginia Tech 3-4 324 48 +2 Clemson 4-3 323 49 +19 Oklahoma State 5-2 322 T50 +16 UTSA 4-3 321 T50 +2 Illinois 3-5 321 52 +10 Nebraska 4-3 320 53 -18 Kentucky 5-2 319 54 +7 JMU 7-0 315 55 - Jacksonville State 6-2 312 56 -19 Iowa State 4-3 307 57 +22 Memphis 5-2 302 T58 +25 BYU 5-2 300 T58 +2 West Virginia 4-3 300 60 +4 UNLV 6-1 299 T61 +9 Tulane 6-1 298 T61 +3 Washington State 4-3 298 63 +13 UCF 3-4 297 T64 -21 Troy 5-2 296 T64 +16 Minnesota 4-3 296 T64 +10 Pittsburgh 2-5 296 T67 -22 Texas State 5-2 293 T67 +13 Wake Forest 4-3 293 T67 +4 Houston 3-4 293 70 +7 Georgia State 6-1 290 T71 - Eastern Michigan 4-4 288 T71 -25 Purdue 2-5 288 T73 +18 Bowling Green 4-4 285 T73 +5 Auburn 3-4 285 75 +12 Buffalo 3-5 284 76 +12 San Jose State 3-5 283 77 -4 Georgia Tech 3-4 282 T78 +19 Boston College 4-3 281 T78 -10 Utah State 3-5 281 80 +5 Georgia Southern 5-2 279 81 -30 Louisiana Tech 3-5 276 82 -29 California 3-4 273 T83 -29 Wyoming 5-2 271 T83 +1 Louisiana 4-3 271 T83 +12 Mississippi State 4-3 271 T83 +26 Rice 4-3 271 87 -32 NC State 4-3 270 T88 -6 Marshall 4-3 269 T88 -31 Syracuse 4-3 269 T90 +7 Coastal Carolina 4-3 264 T90 -2 Appalachian State 3-4 264 92 +1 Cincinnati 2-5 263 93 +26 Virginia 2-5 260 T94 +1 Old Dominion 4-3 259 T94 -31 Vanderbilt 2-6 259 96 -4 Central Michigan 4-4 258 T97 +5 FIU 4-4 257 T97 -7 South Carolina 2-5 257 99 +7 Northwestern 3-4 253 T100 +1 Western Kentucky 4-3 252 T100 +7 USF 4-4 252 102 -16 FAU 3-4 249 T103 -29 Boise State 3-4 246 T103 -1 UNT 3-4 246 105 -3 San Diego State 3-5 244 T106 +8 Western Michigan 2-6 237 T106 +11 Arizona State 1-6 237 108 +7 Colorado State 3-4 236 109 +13 Baylor 3-4 235 T110 +1 Middle Tennessee 2-6 234 T110 +1 Connecticut 1-6 234 112 -11 UTEP 2-6 233 113 +2 Sam Houston 0-7 230 114 -9 UAB 2-6 228 115 -4 Hawaii 2-6 223 116 -6 Akron 1-7 221 117 +1 Navy 3-4 219 118 -24 Army 2-5 218 119 +4 Charlotte 2-5 212 T120 +7 New Mexico 3-4 211 T120 -21 Massachusetts 1-7 211 122 -15 Michigan State 2-5 207 123 +5 Ball State 2-6 200 124 -5 Stanford 2-5 198 T125 -4 Tulsa 3-4 194 T125 - Indiana 2-5 194 127 -1 ECU 1-6 193 128 +5 Nevada 1-6 182 129 - Arkansas State 3-4 180 130 - UL Monroe 2-5 178 131 -7 Temple 2-6 165 132 - Kent State 1-7 160 133 -2 Southern Mississippi 1-6 145 North Carolina went up?
I do appreciate Tennessee staying neutral, even if they are too low.
Here’s mine this week, I was planning on sharing my ballots once the first cfp ranking came out so I’d have something to bitch about. But I figure that I can share mine a week early to show where I’m leaning leading in.
- Michigan
- Georgia
- Washington
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Alabama
- Florida State
- Penn State
- Utah
- Notre Dame
- Oregon State
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
- LSU
- Duke
- Louisville
- Missouri
- Air Force
- Liberty
- North Carolina
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- James Madison
Again my ballot is strictly gut based. It doesn’t matter what the FPI rating for your o-line is, I wanna see you move the pile on 4th and inches. I don’t care if you’ve got the best passing attack in the country, can you score when you need to? I’ve certainly got my biases, remember I refuse to rate Tennessee lower than what I think their ceiling is while others need to prove a bit more to me. But overall I feel like my ballot is settling down a bit. Feel free to yell at me if you think I’m wrong.