🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 25% (+1)
Lab 48% (+1)
Lib Dem 10% (-2)
Other 17% (+1)
Fieldwork: 29th June - 3rd July 2023 Sample: 1,507 GB adults (Changes from 23rd - 26th June 2023)
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats CON 25.0% 132 LAB 48.0% 403 LD 10.0% 36 REFUK 5.0% 0 Green 5.0% 1 SNP 4% 53 PC 0.5% 3 Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64 LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495 LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15 Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0 Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54 PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2 Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0 N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18 Scotland EC Break-Down
Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP 21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47% - This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers
PrincipleFish
- Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:
More would vote green if we had a PR voting system. The same goes for LD. The interesting part for me would be how protest votes either decline or rise. With PR every vote counts. People are happy to throw a protest vote in when it doesn’t matter due to FPTP.
Of polls recently, past week or so, this one has both Green and REF on less than the others I remember. 7% & 8% shuffling between them.
But those polls had Lab lower than 48% so could be a Deltapoll thing, weighting etc.
I will be interested in the true GE numbers they get, will REF get Con protest votes if the boomers still vote in the same numbers as usual (almost all REF support was 55+) and will Greens regress back to 2-3% because the plurality of their vote goes tactical…
It’s a joke that FPTP turns all these parties into a joke.
In FPTP people vote to block who they do not want, not what they desire. It is a very regressive system that does not promote good policies. There are no good arguments for FPTP anymore. We are enduring the most right wing government in our history. Worse still is that if the Tories did not win in 2019, the alternative would have been an ultra far left government.
So close to the SNP being the official opposition.
I’m actually super sceptical of the Scotland only numbers in the poll, I expect fewer SNP seats overall as a hunch. But the LibDem numbers they have for Scotland I flat out don’t believe.
Polling error, chance, and/or weighting I don’t know, but colour me sceptical.
The constant lead for Labour is pretty impressive: Tories deserve to lose the next election for what they’ve done (or haven’t done at all).
It’s interesting how Labour has managed to separate themselves from Corbyn and make themselves seen to be electable. The Tories usually close polling gaps during a general election, but this one is pretty much a guaranteed loss for the Tories if it were held soon.
I mean, personally I think the success that Labour are seeing right now is directly a result of the Conservative party imploding over the last 2-3 years. Throw in a ‘cost of living’ crisis and the fact that we’ve had these guys in charge for well over a decade it shouldn’t be a massive shock that Labour are polling well.
I think another huge part of a guaranteed loss is that the Tories have always been “the party of the homeowner”, yet good luck with that considering today’s interest rates on mortgages.
I amazed the Greens are doing better there. They did fantastically well in the local elections and they seem to be the only ones making sense at the moment.
