Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

  • @[email protected]
    4•6 months ago

    FWIW, the Biden administration is doing a decent amount of behind the scenes work on housing costs, both directly (funding low income housing) and indirectly (incentivising cities to change laws that decrease supply and prop up the local landlords). Some of the reasons (IMO) he doesn’t talk much about this are:

    1. Small-scale landlords are a decent chunk of the Democrats’ donor base. So although this isn’t going to significantly negatively affect small-scale landlords (not that I’d care if it did - it just isn’t), too much messaging on that front could have a negative effect on donations.
    2. Some of the least reliable voters that the Democrats are depending on this year are sufficiently leftist to dislike any attempt that isn’t fully public housing. And none of what the Biden administration is doing will result in massive swathes of public housing. Some places might get some at the margins, but mostly what’s happening is that local governments are working with non-profits to provide more affordable housing, using the influx of federal cash to make it happen. Messaging here needs to be very careful not to give these folks an excuse not to vote.
    3. Many of the voters who are (somehow…) on the fence between Biden and Trump are also very NIMBY. So if someone from the Biden administration were to come to their town and say “Joe did this!” that could actually dissuade some undecided voters.

    Is it stupid? Absolutely!

    Is Biden doing enough on housing? Definitely not!

    But a big chunk of what he is doing is flying under the radar, partially because they’re not advertising it and partially because it takes longer than just one presidential term for these kinds of projects to make it to fruition. The first development in my city that took advantage of Biden administration policies finally broke ground in September. The first actual affordable unit to come out of it will be available in 2025.

    • @GoofSchmoofer
      1•6 months ago

      It’s good to know that this administration is doing something to help directly or indirectly. And if there is a constant in the world of American politics its Democrats don’t have a clue how to sell their agenda or legislative wins to the public.

      But it doesn’t have to be that way. There has to be smart people that would want to work with this reelection campaign that can craft sound bites and advertising that promotes what they have done. And do it in a way that isn’t scary to the donor base.