• @[email protected]
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    101 month ago

    I wish this was cause for hope, but polls are still showing Trump neck and neck usually with a 2% lead over Biden. It’s really going to come down to at least two, probably three, swing states. Given that some of them allow the EC vote to be split, there is even a possibility of a Tie.

    • @[email protected]
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      131 month ago

      The last couple of elections have shown the polls to be unreliable with a distinct bias favoring Republicans in appearance. Last I heard the popular theory was boomers are more likely to answer random calls and have time for a bunch of questions.

      • @SulaymanF
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        51 month ago

        No. The polls do swing about 4% but it’s in a random direction in every election no matter what.

        Almost no polls use landline random digit dialing exclusively anymore. Some call cell phones, some do online surveys or in person surveys, and some do focus groups.

        • @[email protected]
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          11 month ago

          Almost no polls use landline […] Some call cell phones

          Yes; that’s entirely consistent with what I said. I wasn’t even considering that some polls might be calling landlines when I made my comment.

            • @[email protected]
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              11 month ago
              1. The last 2 elections. If you’re going to criticize me at least take the time to double-check your math.
                • @[email protected]
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                  21 month ago

                  Including the midterm election is how I got a grand total of 2.

                  1 presidential 4 years ago.

                  1 midterm 2 years ago.

                  1+1=2.

                  2 elections.

                  Get it yet?

                  Please consider taking the time to think instead of immediately jumping to a knee-jerk response.

    • @[email protected]
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      71 month ago

      Whatever happens will happen. We don’t have control over the outcome only our efforts. Do what you can now to fight for what you believe. Stressing over polls doesn’t help.

        • @[email protected]
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          31 month ago

          Sure, about the candidates and their stances. All the candidates manipulate the polls to make it look like their ahead and they are just used to pressure people to vote for one of the major parties. Vote for who you want in office. And if you are inclined then try to sway others. But this bandwagon appeal isn’t the way.

            • @[email protected]
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              41 month ago

              There is no need for personal attacks. If you are implying I subscribe to conspiracy theories then you are not correct.

              • @[email protected]
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                -21 month ago

                No no, not conspiracy theories, just that the candidates respectively each own the media as a whole and that all polls are made up numbers.

    • @ashok36
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      21 month ago

      If trump internal polling showed the same lead, there’s no way he would show up to try to eat away a slice of the libertarians puny 2-3% of the vote.

      I think the numbers look way worse for Trump than national pollsters show and I think their polling indicates Trump loses in a landslide if he’s convicted in any of his cases.

      • @paddirn
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        11 month ago

        That it should require a conviction is still batshit insane. That’s still way too damning of a good portion of the American public.

      • @[email protected]
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        1 month ago

        TBF, A or B Polling won’t show any votes for C, but with how third party is more popular than in the past for both major parties this year in the wake of the Gaza Genocide it could negatively impact either candidate. That doesn’t mean the polling is meaningless.

        Trump is polling with a lead even as closing arguments are heard in his hush money trial today, and he has suspended his insurrection classified documents criminal trial indefinitely with help from a Judge Cannon that he appointed during his term.

        We don’t have to like it but we have to accept the facts here, Trump is popular and that threatens the future of US Democracy and NATO.

        EDIT: His insurrection trials are held up over some other BS.

        • @ashok36
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          11 month ago

          Slight correction: the insurrection case is held up by the Supreme Court sitting on their hands. The classified document case is held up by Cannon.

          • @[email protected]
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            11 month ago

            No, it had a date set for May 20th and Judge Cannon postponed it with no new date set. She made the decision on May 7th, less than 2 weeks before the trial.

            Trump’s criminal insurrection trial would have already started if Cannon didn’t postpone it.

            • @ashok36
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              01 month ago

              No, the insurrection trial is held up by the scotus. It always would have been, with or without Cannon.

                • @ashok36
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                  11 month ago

                  Cannon isn’t in charge of the insurrection challenge.

                  • @[email protected]
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                    11 month ago

                    Ah you’re right, it’s his other other criminal trial, the classified documents hoarded at Mara Lago. It’s kind of hard to keep track of his felonies at this rate.