https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/

Overall, older voters have tended to be more Republican than younger voters in recent decades, but this is not true for Black voters. While 7% of Black voters 50 and older currently identify as or lean Republican, 17% of Black voters under 50 are aligned with the Republican Party. This is not new, as younger Black voters have tended to be more Republican than older Black voters over the last 25 years.

No. It is not accurate to say his popularity with black voters is “surging”.

https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/

I’ve seen some decent conversations over on Mastodon about how the democrats taking the black vote for granted is causing real damage. Not criticise or focus on you personally at all, but your response kinda backs up the point.

In a hard two party system, what else was going to happen?

Keep in mind that if you ask a random sample of people who they will vote for and ask a sample of people who they will vote for and throw out all the people who didn’t bother to vote in either of 2020 or 2022 you get a different answer.