This article addresses the cynicism and fatalism we see all over the fediverse. While it’s understandable, I also think it’s self-defeating.

Because of the pervasive cynicism Trump has always inspired—and also because he has so long evaded accountability—there is already a knowing, wise-guy deflation of the impact. People who have excessive pride in their own cleverness are downplaying the news, suggesting that a criminal conviction, especially for a complicated paperwork crime growing out of an ancient sexual peccadillo, won’t hurt Trump at all.

While Trump and the spineless Republicans in Congress started downplaying this conviction even before the verdict was read, I think in the next few weeks we will see a big enough shift in public sentiment. Most people only follow the arguments about Trump peripherally. They won’t just shake off this conviction like they did with allegations and indictments. The news of the conviction will stick and the arguments about biased judges and deep state conspiracies will not.

The tide is about to change, but we work against it when we say “This won’t matter” or even “This will only help him.” His base is unmovable, but he needs more than his base.