He got 2000 “wrong”… Or did he?

  • Sami
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    27
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    5 months ago

    1024 historians assuming they all pick different combinations at random. Probability of randomly guessing at least 9 of 10 goes up to 1.075% or 93 historians (on average to get one person with 9/10 predictions right) or like the other commenter mentioned 1024-11= 1013 to guarantee a 9/10 but that’s a little overkill.

    • @steventhedev
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      95 months ago

      Where does the 93 come from? The percentage is almost correct, but it should be 11 (1.074%)