Joe Biden is losing this election and is a lost cause candidate. I got there through my own analysis of his polling data and the probability that he can actually get the level of “swing” in his polling numbers that he needs (my results showed it to be, a practical statistical impossibility).
It would be phenomenal marketing, and whomever came out on top would be riding a rocket.
Second, for whoever wins, they get a suddenly unified Democratic party behind them. We get leave the baggage of Joe Biden behind and they get to mount a rocket ship coming out of the convention. What they do with that rocket is on them, but theyll have more earned media than any candidate other than maybe 2016 Trump.
No its a great thing; an open convention best possible outcome.
Biden’s not going to win in the next few weeks, on account of the next few weeks not including the election, so the first bit is right out.
Whether the party (and, perhaps more importantly, low-information voters) unite behind a new candidate won’t be certain until the results of election day. If you think that the information environment is going to be coherent and clear in the aftermath of a contested convention, I don’t know what to tell you other than that you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. You aren’t going to get the ‘clean’ result that you want, regardless of whether an open convention is our best possible choice.
If you think that the information environment is going to be coherent and clear in the aftermath of a contested convention, I don’t know what to tell you other than that you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
Its simply that I think I have a far, far better read of politics than you do. I called this moment, literally months ago, here.
And on the previous point, I meant that we’ll know concretely if the party is going to force Biden out over the course of the next very few weeks. It wont (and can’t) take more than a few weeks. Biden’s going to be in the race 100% until the second he isn’t.
!remindme 1 year if I’m still alive.
ahh we’re gonna know sooner. Couple weeks, max.
Biden’s not going to win in the next few weeks, on account of the next few weeks not including the election, so the first bit is right out.
Whether the party (and, perhaps more importantly, low-information voters) unite behind a new candidate won’t be certain until the results of election day. If you think that the information environment is going to be coherent and clear in the aftermath of a contested convention, I don’t know what to tell you other than that you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. You aren’t going to get the ‘clean’ result that you want, regardless of whether an open convention is our best possible choice.
Its simply that I think I have a far, far better read of politics than you do. I called this moment, literally months ago, here.
And on the previous point, I meant that we’ll know concretely if the party is going to force Biden out over the course of the next very few weeks. It wont (and can’t) take more than a few weeks. Biden’s going to be in the race 100% until the second he isn’t.