The real reason why no one polls better is that everyone else is a hypothetical right now
Even if you phrase the poll as “If Biden backs out, and is replaced by $NAME, will you support $NAME?”, people still have their own preferences and that will make it into the poll. They may be secretly hoping for AOC or Michelle Obama or Beyoncé, and say “No” because of that.
But after Biden leaves, if the question is “Now that the candidate is $NAME, will you support $NAME”, I think you will find a lot of support rallying behind that person. Because there’s no choice at that point.
Would all those guys lose to Trump? Probably. Will Biden lose to Trump? Definitely. I’ll take long odds over no odds.
No one polls better what are you smoking???
The real reason why no one polls better is that everyone else is a hypothetical right now Even if you phrase the poll as “If Biden backs out, and is replaced by $NAME, will you support $NAME?”, people still have their own preferences and that will make it into the poll. They may be secretly hoping for AOC or Michelle Obama or Beyoncé, and say “No” because of that.
But after Biden leaves, if the question is “Now that the candidate is $NAME, will you support $NAME”, I think you will find a lot of support rallying behind that person. Because there’s no choice at that point.