Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll

  • @lennybirdEnglish
    14•1 month ago

    This is not good news.

    Reminder:

    • Biden was TEN POINTS ahead of where he is now back in 2020.

    • Biden ASKED for this debate because he was already trailing in the polls and not where he needs to be. At best things remain the same, which is to say poor. At worst, they are worse.

    • 2020 was decided by 40,000 undecided low-info apathetic voters in 3 battleground states. If those people remain apathetic and polls remain this close, Biden will lose.

    • His own campaign staff is now reportedly saying they see no viable path to victory.

    Further key points raised in this poll/article:

    Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

    That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.

    Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote

    When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.

    • aramis87
      6•1 month ago

      they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president.

      I don’t care. I absolutely know that trump lacks the mental, moral, and leadership fitness to be President. And if both candidates were President now and died in their sleep tonight, I have absolute faith that Biden’s team would do their best to keep the country running while Trump’s team would immediately start dismantling the country and handing the pieces to those least fit to be near power.

      • @lennybirdEnglish
        10•1 month ago

        All due respect to your views and my views, but unless you’re my low-info apathetic battleground swing-voter uncle who will decide this election, your opinion and mine matter very little.

        If the country were as informed as you and me, then we wouldn’t have either of these candidates to begin with.

    • @[email protected]
      5•1 month ago

      It’s good news relative to my expectations which were that things would get worse. But yes, the situation looks quite dire here.

      • @gAlienLifeformOP
        2•1 month ago

        I still remember when the Biden campaign was promising the debate was the moment that was going to turn everything around. That obviously didn’t happen, but I also don’t know if the debate actually changed anything or just made everybody who was going to vote for Biden/against Trump anyway more depressed without changing their votes.

        For whatever this voters’ opinion is worth - I think Biden’s an overly conservative ass, but I think anyone that’s likely to replace would be too, so that’s a wash, and as far as the age thing goes I think we’ve had less functional people in the oval office and figured it out (see; Reagan’s second term), so I don’t really care about that. I just want Trump to lose and for the DNC political machine to have a major change in their leadership and direction before 2026 and 2028.