FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • @[email protected]
    3•5 months ago

    Remind me what 538 was predicting the last time Trump won

    Thanks for link! I’ll save others a click:

    • @thrawn
      9•5 months ago

      Site’s still up

      Trump had a near 30% chance per their analysis, which is pretty significant

      Edit: so yeah a higher chance this time wouldn’t be great