The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is like a huge heat pump, taking water from the tropics to the north, warming areas in Europe. But as climate change accelerates, AMOC is becoming less stable. It might even be headed to a shutdown.
“Across a thousand runs, the model cranked through the temperature data and settled on a year. Sometimes the model spat out later dates. Sometimes earlier. The two scientists made a plot of the numbers and a neat cluster emerged. Yes—2057. But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095.”