Man, they buried the answer:
“Across a thousand runs, the model cranked through the temperature data and settled on a year. Sometimes the model spat out later dates. Sometimes earlier. The two scientists made a plot of the numbers and a neat cluster emerged. Yes—2057. But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095.”
It was a good read I thought. It seems like these findings went a little viral, for scientific research that is and the author presumed their readers were already aware of the dates, rightly it wrongly.
I appreciate the insight into the work of scientists and the people involved. There should be more of that IMO.
So as soon as tomorrow as late as the next century? Fuck
No, not every year has equal probability. 2057 and the years around then are the most likely.
With a 95% certainty that it’ll happen before 2095.
It’s possible, but not likely, I’ll live to see it happen. 2057 means I’d be 88. Highly unlikely I’ll see 88 given my medical and family history.
Say 95% chance I won’t live that long. :)
It was very interesting listening to this article, cause it was like a story built around scientists who study the AMOC.
Just to note that there is a new study from June 2024 that mentions the following:
The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59±17%.
(…) the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2100 is very likely to be underestimated in the IPCC-AR6 and needs to be reconsidered in the IPCC-AR7.
So probably not tomorrow.
Definitely the day after tomorrow.
