I understand that weather on TV can’t be hyperlocally accurate. But a weather app on my phone has my exact GPS coordinates. Why can’t it tell me exactly when a rain cloud will be passing over my location?

It’s gotten to the point where I just use precipitation maps to figure out my rain chances for the day.

The hourly forecast is mostly useless because it’s not a chance % but a % of the area that will be raining.

  • @folekaule
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    195 months ago

    Unless I misunderstood what you said, that’s not it either. 50% chance of rain means exactly that: according to their forecast models, there is a 50% change it will rain. Snopes did a writeup of this.

    • @[email protected]
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      5 months ago

      Key word “in the given forecast area”.

      The statement “there’s a 40% chance of rain at any given point at any given time in the forecast area/period” is an average over both area and time.

      Many different actual distributions of rain could result in that average, including a 100% chance of it raining 100% of the time in 40% of the are or a 40% chance of it raining in 100% of the time in 100% of the area, and a 100% chance of it raining 40% of the time in 100% of the area. Real distributions are typically messier than that.

        • @kitnaht
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          5 months ago

          Reading Snopes will give you plenty. Read the articles - and a lot of them use weasel-wording to push the result they want.

          I don’t have the exact article on hand at the moment, but an example would be someone claiming that clear-cutting 1000 acres of trees would destroy [X]^3 of CO2 reduction; and then Snopes will “fact check” it by saying they aren’t cutting down 1000 acres of trees this year. Often times they’ll ‘debunk’ something that sounds like the claim, but isn’t the actual claim.

          • AmidFuror
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            85 months ago

            That’s not a correct understanding of how Snopes works. They debunked this.

            • @kitnaht
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              -35 months ago

              We’ve investigated ourselves, and have found nothing wrong!

              • @TheTetrapod
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                35 months ago

                I think you just restated their joke.

      • @linearchaos
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        65 months ago

        yeah, never mind the references in the article where they pointed out the evidence for their conclusions. :P