It would be the first big failure of the betting circuits. They had Vance leading more or less since the start of July and in second place consistently since the start of June. He won. They had Donald leading for a year and a half before the nom, he got in. Harris was the solid second place for most of Biden’s term, and after the debate she was the second pick by the 30th after overtaking Newsom and was first at several points, including a 5 day stretch before he stepped down. She won.

They got Biden stepping down and who would replace, they got the Republican nominee, they got the Republican VP. Them being badly wrong on this when Shapiro is up so much would be an upset.