Nebraska changing it’s laws to WTA would alter a couple of scenarios, turning narrow losses into ties or ties into narrow wins.
Most of these scenarios aren’t very likely(two involve Maine state flipping and one involves Trump doing really well in the Rust Belt and flopping in the South which would be absurd), but the 'Trump sweeps the South and South-West and Harris dominates the Rust Belt" scenario is currently THE most likely on polls, more likely than a safe Trump win by yoinking PA or WI or a safe Harris win yoinking Nevada or Georgia. And that’s a tie if Nebraska changes the laws, which puts it to the House…except each State gets one vote and the reps just have to work together to pick that vote. So even in a Blue House they’d be likely voting Red.
What would you put the odds of-
Nebraska changing the laws before the election.
Maine being unable to gather support and pass laws to change their own system in response in time(Nebraska’s been trying since March, if Nebraska passed it in September or October would Maine rally in time?
It may only be one point +R one point -D, but that single point matters if every state voted exactly as it’s polled right now on the most centrist polling sites.
Nebraska changing it’s laws to WTA would alter a couple of scenarios, turning narrow losses into ties or ties into narrow wins. Most of these scenarios aren’t very likely(two involve Maine state flipping and one involves Trump doing really well in the Rust Belt and flopping in the South which would be absurd), but the 'Trump sweeps the South and South-West and Harris dominates the Rust Belt" scenario is currently THE most likely on polls, more likely than a safe Trump win by yoinking PA or WI or a safe Harris win yoinking Nevada or Georgia. And that’s a tie if Nebraska changes the laws, which puts it to the House…except each State gets one vote and the reps just have to work together to pick that vote. So even in a Blue House they’d be likely voting Red.
What would you put the odds of-