I would assume he is referring to the issues people rank as most important in polls. The economy is pretty much permanently at the top of that list, and a lot of polls put immigration at number 2, presumably because right wing media has been working overtime to make it an issue.
Now, for smart, well informed voters who are thinking things through logically, these aren’t big advantages for Trump. But that’s not most voters (as evidenced by the fact that Trump’s in even in this race).
The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it’s bad, they tend to blame the incumbent. Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven’t gone back down to where they were, so things don’t feel better than when inflation was high.
If the GOP candidate was someone younger who was charismatic and didn’t have a massive amount of baggage, someone who was smart enough to run on a focused economic message instead of rambling about electric cars, crowd sizes and not understanding race, I would bet that the polls would look very different right now.
That said, I think he’s being too dismissive of other issues like abortion, NATO, and democracy. But in all fairness, this is from a soundbite, not a thesis statement, he’s almost certainly not arguing that there are literally no issues which favor Harris. And he might be lumping some things like project 2025 and Trump’s threat to democracy in with “attributes” such as Trump’s age and criminal behavior.
The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it’s bad, they tend to blame the incumbent.
This is one hundred percent true, but let’s not forget: thanks to Biden stepping down we have a situation where Harris has (so far) managed to Jedi Mind Trick everyone into thinking she’s not really attached to Biden but is a fresh, new candidate. It’s uncertain how long the illusion will last, but provided it does it’s possible for her to avoid blame sticking to her the same way.
Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven’t gone back down to where they were, so things don’t feel better than when inflation was high.
They never will. Lower inflation means that prices are rising at a slower rate now, but still rising. Prices going down would be deflation, which most economic theory says would be a complete disaster.
That is all true, but when it comes to how most people vote, it isn’t about sound economic theory, it’s about perceptions, expectations and emotions. Prices aren’t likely to drop back down to where they were 4-5 years ago. But even if they remain relatively stable, it will probably take some time for people to think of the current prices as normal and not inflated.
I would assume he is referring to the issues people rank as most important in polls. The economy is pretty much permanently at the top of that list, and a lot of polls put immigration at number 2, presumably because right wing media has been working overtime to make it an issue.
Now, for smart, well informed voters who are thinking things through logically, these aren’t big advantages for Trump. But that’s not most voters (as evidenced by the fact that Trump’s in even in this race).
The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it’s bad, they tend to blame the incumbent. Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven’t gone back down to where they were, so things don’t feel better than when inflation was high.
If the GOP candidate was someone younger who was charismatic and didn’t have a massive amount of baggage, someone who was smart enough to run on a focused economic message instead of rambling about electric cars, crowd sizes and not understanding race, I would bet that the polls would look very different right now.
That said, I think he’s being too dismissive of other issues like abortion, NATO, and democracy. But in all fairness, this is from a soundbite, not a thesis statement, he’s almost certainly not arguing that there are literally no issues which favor Harris. And he might be lumping some things like project 2025 and Trump’s threat to democracy in with “attributes” such as Trump’s age and criminal behavior.
This is one hundred percent true, but let’s not forget: thanks to Biden stepping down we have a situation where Harris has (so far) managed to Jedi Mind Trick everyone into thinking she’s not really attached to Biden but is a fresh, new candidate. It’s uncertain how long the illusion will last, but provided it does it’s possible for her to avoid blame sticking to her the same way.
They never will. Lower inflation means that prices are rising at a slower rate now, but still rising. Prices going down would be deflation, which most economic theory says would be a complete disaster.
That is all true, but when it comes to how most people vote, it isn’t about sound economic theory, it’s about perceptions, expectations and emotions. Prices aren’t likely to drop back down to where they were 4-5 years ago. But even if they remain relatively stable, it will probably take some time for people to think of the current prices as normal and not inflated.
The only way forward is to raise wages to match the new prices. And then hopefully try to prevent undue inflation in the future