cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/2068142
Based on public statements by defense-sector officials and his own interviews, military expert Maxim Starchak, a Fellow at the Center for International and Defense Policy at Queen’s University, concludes that the growing shortages of workers in the military-industrial complex are an insoluble problem.
The “demographic hole” in Russia (by late 2022 the number of workers under 30 years old had dramatically decreased) only intensifies the competition for personnel. “There are now half as many young people on the labor market than required,” says Natalia Nikulinskaya, head of HR at Penza PTPA, a manufacturer of pipeline fittings.
Obviously, the war in Ukraine has significantly exacerbated the demographic issues. According to career consultant Galina Babkova, based on official data and calculations by independent media, 650,000 able-bodied men went to war in Ukraine.
Even though workers without skills and experience are immediately offered a good salary, it is still hard to find people, says Larisa Smirnova, an HR expert from Kostroma.
In June, industrial output in Russia slowed sharply, with the subsegments of military equipment and optics/electronics production falling for two straight months. This suggests that industry is plateauing amid the labor problems and tight monetary policy. Salary increases and other measures have ceased to push workers into industry, which is starting to slip.
That number caught my eye because it matched with the number of roughly 600.000 russian soldiers KIA or wounded (estimation to be taken with several gram of salt due to being pushed by Ukraine, see source: https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/547c8ce1-ace1-4ce2-b0c3-96eff2fa2028.jpeg?thumbnail=1500&format=webp ).
Whatever the exact numbers are: They’re not going to recover from this dip in the population for a very long time.
They are never going to recover. Russia is going to continue cycling downwards until the country comes apart. In 20-30 years everything to the East of Perm will be lost. What Russia went through in the '90s is going to be the “Good Old Days” by 2050.
They stole children early on. Im pretty sure the invasion was with the thought it would be easy peasy and human capital was a resource they wanted to steal along with other resources.
In no way am I condoning Russian behaviour by the following mathematical statements. People are not numbers, but sometimes you have to look at numbers.
They stole upwards of a few thousand children from eastern Ukraine. They have lost hundreds of thousands to combat. That equation would only have worked for them if they had won in three days and moved through Ukraine unimpeded. And even then, only temporarily.
If you need to use conquest to prop up your economy, it usually means you’re in a spiral where continuous conquest is required to keep feeding the machine. See also: Alexander.
Imagine driving the country of Stalin into the ground and longingly looking back at the folden period of the country as that time between the purge and nukes. You know, under Stalin. Those were the good times…