538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
FiveThirtyEight was one of the few outlets reporting that Trump had almost a 40% chance of winning going into the 2016 election, while most other outlets were predicting a landslide for Clinton. Keep in mind that saying someone has a 62% chance of winning doesn’t mean they will win; it means that it’s basically a coin flip. And Clinton won the popular election (by a lot!), but lost in key states to lose in the electoral college. So, IMO, they didn’t get it wrong, but people misinterpreted what they said.
(The moral there is that even if Harris ends up favored to win, 6:4, fuckin’ VOTE like your civil rights depends on it!)
Given that Kemp handily beat Abrams for Governor, and Governor is a popular vote, it’s a pretty good indicator that the state as a whole still strongly skews Republican. (And why oh why did Dems nominate her a second time, when Kemp beat her the 1st time? The voters already told Dems they didn’t want her, so why run her again…? Fucking stupid.)
538 did really good in 2016, I think an off 2022 prediction hurt their numbers a bit