The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.

AI Generated Summary (I’ve been expirimentign with it):

  • Kamala Harris had a tough day in the forecast despite gains in national polls.
  • She leads by 3.8 points nationally but has a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College.
  • The model adjusts for convention bounce, assuming her polls are inflated.
  • Harris’s numbers may improve if she maintains her current standing.
  • A concern is the lack of polls showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state.
  • Recent polls show Pennsylvania as a tie or slightly favoring Trump.
  • Harris has a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.
  • RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump may impact her in Rust Belt states.
  • Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, but there’s speculation about Josh Shapiro.
  • Snot FlickermanEnglish
    12•3 months ago

    Oh, Nate Silver? The guy who is a degenerate gambler who was gambling up to $10k a day while he was in charge of 538, and only took the shutdown as a sign he should back off… Not that he needed some serious self reflection for an obviously serious problem and that he failed his employees? That Nate Silver?

    Nate Silver’s new book makes clear he has a gambling problem, is obsessed with it, and isn’t even as smart or clever as others who have written about it.

    Bsky thread on the book: https://bsky.app/profile/davekarpf.bsky.social/post/3kzwvdiolld2a