I run this analysis in Politics whenever there’s a post about “New national poll says…” but we don’t allow self posts over there so it’s always buried in a comment.

National polls are useless because we don’t have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.

So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:

Let’s see the state breakdown now:

Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5

Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So… changes from last time…

Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.

Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.

    • @jordanlundOP
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      3 months ago

      Workers rights? The CWA disagrees:

      https://cwa-union.org/kamala-harris-champion-working-people

      "Vice President Harris serves as the Chair of the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment. In doing so, she has helped advance dozens of policies to make it easier for workers to organize, to raise wages, and to strengthen workers’ bargaining power.

      In the Vice President’s role as the president of the United States Senate, Harris has cast tiebreaking votes to confirm CWA’s former counsel Jennifer Abruzzo to serve as General Counsel of the National Labor Relations Board, to pass the Inflation Reduction Act to create green manufacturing jobs and to lower our prescription drug costs, and to pass the American Rescue Plan to save our pensions and to dig the economy out of the recession that she and President Biden inherited.

      In 2023, Harris cancelled an appearance at an event to avoid crossing a picket line, and changed her hotel reservations for another event to avoid crossing a picket line held by the hotel’s workers.

      Vice President Harris has personally met a number of times with CWA leaders and CWA rank-and-file members to hear our concerns and make sure that the White House’s agenda supports our needs."

      Women’s rights? Pretty sure her stance on restoring reproductive rights is clear:

      https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/19/vice-president-kamala-harris-launches-reproductive-freedoms-tour/

      Which, you know, is also health care.

        • @jordanlundOP
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          33 months ago

          Any increase over the bullshit $7.25 federal minimum now is a win, but yes, the $15/hr. was a discussion for 10 years ago, it needs to be more like $20-$25 now.