I run this analysis in Politics whenever there’s a post about “New national poll says…” but we don’t allow self posts over there so it’s always buried in a comment.
National polls are useless because we don’t have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.
So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:
Let’s see the state breakdown now:
Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
So… changes from last time…
Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.
Updated for 9/8:
The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.
Let’s see what it looks like now:
AZ - WOW(!) 4 most recent polls are ALL ties(!)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
NC - Trump +1, +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Trump +1, +2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Harris +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +2, Tied
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
MN - Harris +5, +7, +11
So, Arizona is out of the Trump column and back to toss up.
GA, NC and PA moving away from Harris.
MI I’m tempted to call a toss up but no recent polling there gives Trump an advantage, so it’s still slimly Harris as is NC and PA Trump.
WI moves from Harris to toss up and it seems likely MI will follow next week.
Plot that on the map and we get:
Trump needs 16. So GA by itself, or any two of WI, AZ, NV.
Harris needs 29. WI, AZ, NV is NOT enough. 27. So if Trump wins Georgia, she’s done.
She needs Georgia + 2 other states to win. Georgia +1 is not enough. The most she could get that way is 27 with AZ.