- cross-posted to:
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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
A Thai court has ordered the dissolution of the reformist party which won the most seats and votes in last year’s election - but was blocked from forming a government.
The ruling also banned Move Forward’s charismatic, young former leader Pita Limjaroenrat and 10 other senior figures from politics for 10 years.
The verdict from the Constitutional Court was expected, after its ruling in January that Move Forward’s campaign promise to change royal defamation laws was unconstitutional.
Speculation happens, sure. I don’t buy that it drives things way out of equilibrium in the long run. As far as I can tell from a skim, neither do your sources.
I also hear about “Murphy’s law”, which is self-evidently not (literally) true in all cases. If you’re teaching an actual Econ 101-type course and you don’t mention market failure, you’re teaching it badly.
Not exactly. A drop in housing prices triggered it IIRC, but the actual chain of dominoes played out on paper in financial instruments.
In an ideal market the big banks would have just been replaced with new ones who take less risks of that sort, but they were too big to fail. That’s definitely a problem, but I don’t really know enough to comment on what the fix should be intelligently; banking economics is on a whole other level.
The total shortfall is in the neighborhood of 3.5 million units.
There’s always some, just because people move unpredictably - a “frictional” amount. I’m sure someone somewhere is sitting on an empty house for no good reason, but they’re losing money, so I doubt it’s a lot by comparison to the frictional amount.
Homeless people aren’t let in for a really sad reason that has nothing to do with necessity: few voters care and nonprofits can’t raise enough money - or alternately donated space - without government help. A lot of those people have “high needs”, and are at risk of causing damage or just leaving a mess, so it’s not like it’s free to let them stay in a building until the next tenant shows up.
Capitalism is neither necessary nor sufficient for politics. Look at the USSR and all the various times they flip-flopped on whatever issue or person. Or Republican Spain and it’s many warring factions, if that’s more your idea of non-capitalism.
It’s true that some scientists are on the hook to say things convenient for a sponsor. The nice thing is that a valid observation will stand the test of time regardless of who makes it. Marx made a huge impact on social sciences, and you don’t have to agree with him on any particular thing (left or right wing - he was still a Victorian white man) to appreciate economics as a driver of history. The same goes for marginalism and friends.
Your link isn’t talking about actual housing supply, it is talking about affordability. If you think that addresses my point, you don’t understand what I’m saying. Like on a fundamental level, you don’t get it.
And you keep throwing up vague, unsourced opinions like:
Like, okay? You don’t buy it, but you’re not going to bother much more with it, you’re not going to make an argument, it’s your opinion so you can just handwave anything I say away. If you’re not convinced, fine, don’t be, but there’s literally nothing for me to respond to here.
This is incredibly frustrating. I don’t even know what your point is anymore, you seem to just be knee-jerk arguing with every point no matter how weak or irrelevant your response is, and you seem content to throw up smokescreens of details rather than actually engage with anything in a substantive manner.
You seemed responsive for most of this, so I was giving you the benefit of the doubt, but this is going in circles and you’re not actually taking on board anything I’m saying. Just focus for a second, deal with the speculation thing. Make a point. If you can’t do that, I’m not going to keep giving you the benefit of the doubt.
That probably means we’ve reached the end of the useful period of conversation. It happens, human working memory is small and language is slow, relative to the complexities of the things we’re talking about. I feel like it’s been pretty successful anyway; my mind has been changed about a few things, you seemed to like the yardsale model.
If we were to keep going, we’d need to rely heavily on data. Yeah, speculation resulting in “few” empty houses is my stance. Your stance is the opposite. It’s empirical, and no amount of abstract arguing can answer it. Ditto for supply and demand in general - you know the abstract arguments about entrepreneurs not leaving money on the table already, and you’re not convinced. The trick, of course, is that this isn’t an economics journal, and we’re not full time economists (hetero or orthodox). That limits how much data we can use to not enough.
I thought markets were garbage once too, and the thing that convinced me, besides the alternate explanation for billionaires I shared, was just having to budget out things myself. Everything runs at cost plus investor dividends, and every investment gives about the same return per principle, assuming similar risk profiles. That’s a life experience I can’t share, though.
Just in the name of explaining myself: I didn’t actually check the methodology again. What I’ve seen in the past is an actual measure of the physical housing stock, and then a comparison of it per capita to other developed countries. It’s smaller.
“We” haven’t “reached the end of the useful period of conversation”, you have reached the end of your capacity or willingness to engage with what I’m saying, and I’ve laid out very clearly how you’re displaying that, and instead of engaging with the points, you fell back into passive-voiced vague notions about human working memory and the speed of language, drawing on sciency language to lend credibility to some absurd notion that nobody could possibly be expected have this conversation, but you just made that up.
We’re not at the limits of human mental capacity, you’re doing specific things that I’ve pointed out, with details, and instead of engaging with what I said in any specific way you’ve done more vague waffle that says nothing.
And if you didn’t even check what you were sending me, why are you so confident about everything you’re saying?
My sources gave very specific numbers -which I directly highlighted with quotes - about the state of the housing supply compared to the unhoused population that you completely ignored in favour of economic rationalism.
This is precisely the kind of thing orthodox economists do, and this is how economics students are taught to think. It’s a real shame, it looks like your critical thinking skills have been pretty badly sabotaged by miseducation. I’m sure you’re intelligent in many ways, but intelligence is domain specific, and if you don’t learn the kind of rigour it takes to think critically, then you won’t be able to.
This is not my first internet argument, by far. It’s not even my first that’s run this long. This always happens. Maybe I’m just dumb, or domain-specific dumb, but the fact is that political debate never works, with me involved or not. The first thing they tell you if you’re door knocking for a candidate is not to bother with debates, and you bet the politicians themselves don’t try and convert each other. Honestly, the progress we have made is pretty extraordinary.
You might be annoyed I’m not engaging with your original point, but be assured it’s deliberate. (And done without any ill-will towards you)
The thing about mental capacity is my own personal explanation for how that works, despite the fact I don’t think either of us is incapable of or unwilling to understand the truth, whatever it may be, and any logical process should have a deterministic outcome.
If you’re frustrated, sorry. I’m not worth it though. Per earlier stages of conversation, I might know people with wealth and/or power, but none of them respect my opinion.
I did engage it. The gap appears to be bigger than that (I know, you don’t believe my source), and I went into more detail about why unhoused people aren’t housed despite it being materially very easy to manage.
I didn’t read the entire paper again, because there’s only so many hours in the day. Same reason I’m not going to go looking for what I was actually thinking of now. Sorry, it’s not personal.
For what it’s worth, my college education was in pure math.
That’s literally not what I said, I said something direct and specific, something you can read in the first paragraph of that source. I believed what they were saying and I repeated it to you. I read your source back to you and you misunderstood.
This is the problem - you clearly aren’t engaging in what’s being said. If you did so directly and specifically, then maybe you could get farther, but you dissolve things into nonspecific drivel, to the point it’s just either wrong or meaningless.
It’s like if I asked you, “What’s 2+2?” and you replied, “The nature of addition is involved in the very definition of numbers, which comes from set theory. Entire books have been written on this subject before we can even define the number 2 and I couldn’t possibly cover it all, it’s just so complicated.”
Like sure, maybe that’s all true, but motherfucker, what is 2+2? You go broad and vague and mysterious with things that sometimes have simple answers.
Maybe that’s why you feel it’s pointless having conversations online. I certainly don’t find that, but I try to stay focused on the points and deal with things directly, and when someone is wasting my time I tell them so and I disengage.
Again, you seemed responsive to what I was saying at first, but when you’re talking about the limits of the “speed of language” in response to a request for details, you are clearly looking for an out. I wouldn’t spend this much time talking about this with someone if I thought it was a waste of time. I’m making the effort to give you this feedback because you’ve shown the ability to be responsive and I don’t sense any ill-will. But if you find that “this always happens”, then maybe you need to take a good look at why, and what it is that you’re doing that might cause that.