Yeah, I still don’t understand the Pakistan thing. Pakistan:
harbored Osama bin Laden
has pretty uninteresting economic output
has serious beef with their much larger neighbor India, and are somewhat friendly with Iran and China
Whereas India:
has a ton of people
already has pretty extensive economic ties to the US, which could be strengthened, and is a ripe alternative to China for production
has tensions w/ China, so we have mutual enemies
is highly unlikely to harbor any of our enemies
Yet we keep them at arm’s length.
I could say the same for Israel and Saudi Arabia. Why are we so intent on picking the worst possible countries in a given region? The only explanation is that we want war…
More like India remembers our position in the cold war and doesn’t have any desire to be beholden to us. Doesn’t matter if it’s the Hindutva or INC, neither are friendly to US hegemony. I’d hold the same position if I was them of course. I mean we still embargo Cuba for fucks sake.
I think they’ve gone beyond somewhat friendly with China. They’ve got PLA troops in Pakistan now doing anti terrorism work. The chances of the Chinese establishing a naval base in Pakistan is far from remote at this point, though I think it would be a back channel red line from the Americans regarding further military funding.
I guess. But on the other hand, a closer union between the US and India should give the US a chunk of that growth, as well as allow the US to shape how India develops.
Pakistan doesn’t export any oil, and while they have discovered oil reserves, western companies aren’t interested due to security concerns. So it’s not oil.
50 years ago during the Cold War the economic trajectory of the two wasn’t so different, and pakistan also included what would become Bangladesh. Nixon was opening relations with China after the sino Soviet split, and India probably wouldn’t agree to ally with someone who was in the process of economically integrating with a country that they were actively fighting a border war with (sino Indian border war 1962-present). Pre Iranian revolution Iran was also a major ally and shares a significant land border with Pakistan, and probably most importantly, Pakistan was an ideal country to serve as a funnel for military assistance to the mujahideen to help fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, which would arguably lead to the economic drain and political quagmire that was a primary factor in its collapse.
Of course the mujahideen would then evolve to become Al Qaeda which Pakistan would harbor, Iran would have its revolution, Bangladesh would gain independence, and the Pakistani military dictatorship would squander the potential of their country on a nuclear program and trying to maintain an army of equal strength to a country 10x their population. But the choice had a lot more geopolitical merit way back then, and once it had been made it is not so easy as forgive and forget or to counter the logistical inertia just because the circumstances change.
Yeah, I still don’t understand the Pakistan thing. Pakistan:
Whereas India:
Yet we keep them at arm’s length.
I could say the same for Israel and Saudi Arabia. Why are we so intent on picking the worst possible countries in a given region? The only explanation is that we want war…
Sunk-cost fallacy stemming from Cold War-era choices.
Yeah, my guess is that since they have nukes, we feel obligated to keep them close so those nukes don’t end up in the wrong hands.
More like India remembers our position in the cold war and doesn’t have any desire to be beholden to us. Doesn’t matter if it’s the Hindutva or INC, neither are friendly to US hegemony. I’d hold the same position if I was them of course. I mean we still embargo Cuba for fucks sake.
This the same India that’s been spending the past 20 years cozying up to us? And vice-versa, of course, we’ve been very interested in India as well.
Pakistan is the major stumbling block remaining, not the policy of half a century ago.
I think they’ve gone beyond somewhat friendly with China. They’ve got PLA troops in Pakistan now doing anti terrorism work. The chances of the Chinese establishing a naval base in Pakistan is far from remote at this point, though I think it would be a back channel red line from the Americans regarding further military funding.
India is a contender for becoming a major power in a multipolar world, where the US is not the hegemon anymore.
So it makes perfect sense to help Pakistan and stir the conflict so, India is slowed in its advances to become a major power.
I guess. But on the other hand, a closer union between the US and India should give the US a chunk of that growth, as well as allow the US to shape how India develops.
religion and oil are the basic reasons, aren’t they?
Pakistan doesn’t export any oil, and while they have discovered oil reserves, western companies aren’t interested due to security concerns. So it’s not oil.
I just don’t see it.
50 years ago during the Cold War the economic trajectory of the two wasn’t so different, and pakistan also included what would become Bangladesh. Nixon was opening relations with China after the sino Soviet split, and India probably wouldn’t agree to ally with someone who was in the process of economically integrating with a country that they were actively fighting a border war with (sino Indian border war 1962-present). Pre Iranian revolution Iran was also a major ally and shares a significant land border with Pakistan, and probably most importantly, Pakistan was an ideal country to serve as a funnel for military assistance to the mujahideen to help fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, which would arguably lead to the economic drain and political quagmire that was a primary factor in its collapse.
Of course the mujahideen would then evolve to become Al Qaeda which Pakistan would harbor, Iran would have its revolution, Bangladesh would gain independence, and the Pakistani military dictatorship would squander the potential of their country on a nuclear program and trying to maintain an army of equal strength to a country 10x their population. But the choice had a lot more geopolitical merit way back then, and once it had been made it is not so easy as forgive and forget or to counter the logistical inertia just because the circumstances change.
Yeah, it’s not easy to change direction, but I think it’s long past time to do so. I don’t see much point in a US/Pakistan alliance these days…
I think Pakistan had important oil pipelines, but am not at all sure