Good point. I was mostly accused of being Russian. Like literally I got DM’s where people said they were calling the FBI on me. People saying that I was just posting to avoid the front lines. People just “can tell” that english isn’t my first language (born and raised here in the US, by the way). Like WTF?! For posting news articles about third parties?! lol
I’m actually socialist and most of my posting are to socialist subs, but yeah, the mob mentality on /c/politics is pretty extreme.
I did get a really good reply, just before I was banned today. A guy said something like that I was chronically extreme centrist, reminding him of his father, who would listen to all opinions, then just decided that everyone was an idiot. Um, that is kinda me! lol
I get that politics is brutal. But what really turned me off of the Democratic party was how I think the Bernie thing went down. I was sooo hyped to vote for Bernie. They replaced him with Hillary. Then when she lost, they blamed third-party.
I honestly don’t think the Dems lost the election because of a third party. I think they lost because of Hillary. Then the Biden illness thing. Then the hatred and vitrol that I got for liking my little Socialist Workers Party candidate; it really showed me the extremes that some people go to.
Make no mistake, I am very anti-Republican, I hate Trump. But the Republicans have never ever been as hateful to me as the Lemmy Democrats have been. To your point tho, it’s just the skew of Lemmy. But oy! lol
Now having said all that, I don’t think Trump is even close to winning. I know everyone thinks the margins are razor-thin, but meh, I think it’s just to generate clicks. I think Harris will win by a decent amount.
And boy are the Lemmy people going to be sad that I will still be posting after the election. The number of comments I got where they were saying “You’ll disappear right after the election, troll!” is hilarious. :)
But meh, politics fanatics like some sports fanatics. They just take everything way too personally and are just itching for a fight about it.
Now having said all that, I don’t think Trump is even close to winning. I know everyone thinks the margins are razor-thin, but meh, I think it’s just to generate clicks. I think Harris will win by a decent amount.
Oh I think this is very wrong.
The one mistake most everyone but Trumpsters always make is underestimating Trump. Polls underestimated him by like 4 or 5 points last election. And franky he beat the odds even before he got into TV and politics, hyping real estate deals and such for the market. Yes, Harris was underestimated too, but that doesn’t necessarily cancel it out.
FiveThirtyEight isn’t what it once was, but you should still pay attention to their tallies.
Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 56-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes, according to our model on Tuesday, Oct. 1 at 11 a.m. Eastern. To put that into perspective, it’s somewhere between the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads, and flipping a coin twice and getting at least one heads. In other words: It’s close! (Go ahead and grab a coin and test this out for yourself; it happens more than you think!)
But the race being close in terms of win probability does not mean a big win is not possible for either candidate. Our model simulates thousands of potential outcomes for the election by adding randomly generated polling errors (of various severity) to our current forecast vote margins in each state. In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida. If polls go the other way, and underestimate Trump again, the Republican will win all swing states up to (but not including) Minnesota. That would be 349 Electoral College votes for Harris, or 312 for Trump, in the case where they beat the polls.
TL;DR Tiny errors translate to massive wins/losses.
IMO Harris is the one that has to sweat this out, as negative press basically doesn’t affect Trump’s polls, while even the littlest slip ups could affect her, given the wave of positivity she’s riding now.
Good point. I was mostly accused of being Russian. Like literally I got DM’s where people said they were calling the FBI on me. People saying that I was just posting to avoid the front lines. People just “can tell” that english isn’t my first language (born and raised here in the US, by the way). Like WTF?! For posting news articles about third parties?! lol
I’m actually socialist and most of my posting are to socialist subs, but yeah, the mob mentality on /c/politics is pretty extreme.
I did get a really good reply, just before I was banned today. A guy said something like that I was chronically extreme centrist, reminding him of his father, who would listen to all opinions, then just decided that everyone was an idiot. Um, that is kinda me! lol
I get that politics is brutal. But what really turned me off of the Democratic party was how I think the Bernie thing went down. I was sooo hyped to vote for Bernie. They replaced him with Hillary. Then when she lost, they blamed third-party.
I honestly don’t think the Dems lost the election because of a third party. I think they lost because of Hillary. Then the Biden illness thing. Then the hatred and vitrol that I got for liking my little Socialist Workers Party candidate; it really showed me the extremes that some people go to.
Make no mistake, I am very anti-Republican, I hate Trump. But the Republicans have never ever been as hateful to me as the Lemmy Democrats have been. To your point tho, it’s just the skew of Lemmy. But oy! lol
Now having said all that, I don’t think Trump is even close to winning. I know everyone thinks the margins are razor-thin, but meh, I think it’s just to generate clicks. I think Harris will win by a decent amount.
And boy are the Lemmy people going to be sad that I will still be posting after the election. The number of comments I got where they were saying “You’ll disappear right after the election, troll!” is hilarious. :)
But meh, politics fanatics like some sports fanatics. They just take everything way too personally and are just itching for a fight about it.
Oh I think this is very wrong.
The one mistake most everyone but Trumpsters always make is underestimating Trump. Polls underestimated him by like 4 or 5 points last election. And franky he beat the odds even before he got into TV and politics, hyping real estate deals and such for the market. Yes, Harris was underestimated too, but that doesn’t necessarily cancel it out.
FiveThirtyEight isn’t what it once was, but you should still pay attention to their tallies.
But they’re still predicting he’ll lose, last time I checked. Unless that has changed since then.
No, it’s a nail biting toss-up, well within the margin of statistical error:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
TL;DR Tiny errors translate to massive wins/losses.
IMO Harris is the one that has to sweat this out, as negative press basically doesn’t affect Trump’s polls, while even the littlest slip ups could affect her, given the wave of positivity she’s riding now.
Oh fair enough. Last time I checked FiveThirtyEight, Harris had a pretty hefty lead. Looks like things have changed.