My gut says Trump is going to win. And I think the voter intimidation, fraud, right-wing takeover of election boards and volunteers, legislation and laws, republican rapid-response lawyers and staff ready to bring multiple suits, and SCOTUS already making a decision to anoint themselves as who determines the winner of the race is what locks it.
Polls are basically a coin flip before you figure in the above, because you can’t model that in a poll. Polls assume that voters that intend to vote will vote and can vote, their vote will be counted, the results will be accurately counted, the results will be accurately reported, and the results will be certified.
Since none of that is secure, there is, in my opinion, a ~3% Trump advantage in battleground states. If I’m right, that basically seals it.
Your gut is wrong. Every election since Rowe has been overturned has skewed HEAVILY in favor of pro-Democrat tickets and issues. I have no idea where you got this invisible percentage from 🤣
My gut says Trump is going to win. And I think the voter intimidation, fraud, right-wing takeover of election boards and volunteers, legislation and laws, republican rapid-response lawyers and staff ready to bring multiple suits, and SCOTUS already making a decision to anoint themselves as who determines the winner of the race is what locks it.
Polls are basically a coin flip before you figure in the above, because you can’t model that in a poll. Polls assume that voters that intend to vote will vote and can vote, their vote will be counted, the results will be accurately counted, the results will be accurately reported, and the results will be certified.
Since none of that is secure, there is, in my opinion, a ~3% Trump advantage in battleground states. If I’m right, that basically seals it.
Your gut is wrong. Every election since Rowe has been overturned has skewed HEAVILY in favor of pro-Democrat tickets and issues. I have no idea where you got this invisible percentage from 🤣