Nate Silver’s polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.
Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it’s likely a “real” effect), this doesn’t in any way mean Trump “will” win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.
My personal opinion is that it’s going to be far closer than anyone is really comfortable with.
I mean, look at 2020… BOTH candidates got more votes than any other candidate in history. 74 million people out of 330 million voted for Trump. 22.4% of the entire population went “Yeah, he looks good!”
Reminds me of that comedy video with the dude in a hospital bed who can’t decide between having a surgeon or a clown do his life-saving surgery (spoiler: he chooses the clown because he’s something different and he felt hospitals need that).
What makes me think Trump will lose again is the issue of women’s rights/abortion.
I don’t think the people most affected by that are the ones answering poll questions, so I don’t think their thoughts are being fully represented in the polls.
God I hope so, but Trump’s continued support, specifically with white women, the largest demographic, is just BAFFLING to me.
I do see some older middle-aged women Trump supporters here, but most of the Trump supporters I see are the guys with the flags on their trucks and stuff.