Even if it’s not enough to make them vote the opposite way, it might be enough to make them not show up to vote against harris. Turnout changes in single digit percentages matters a lot
Note that polling doesn’t capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting
The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. This year that’s flipped
Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there’s a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020
The majority of them, 59%, said they voted for Trump in 2020. But now, only 45% plan to cast their ballots for him again in 2024, marking a 14-point difference.
I agree thats prob the best proxy. I don’t know that we’ll get any exit polling data from GA or NC yet, but the turnout numbers hopefully look good good for Harris. She needs wide margins to keep this out of the SC.
Who’s the type of person that’s still undecided but would be swayed by some new relevation on Trump? At this stage you either don’t know anything because you don’t follow the news, you already know he’s a criminal and a piece of shit, or you just think the media is making stuff up because “they’re out to get him”.
There’s no piece of news that could possibly change things at this stage, besides him dying or something.
I’d like to agree with this. But the fact is- we live in a reality in which not only a 34x convicted criminal/rapist is allowed to run for president, but has an actual chance to win.
If this can happen, then so too can there be undecided voters.
Yeah, agreed. The whole Democrat talking point about Trump being worse is just so played out. If you personally care about the issue and if both choices to vote for are pro genocide, it’s definitely valid to stay home or vote third party. It’s the only leverage they have.
Keep in mind it also gives people canvasing to lower-information voters something to mention
As an example, I was talking to someone undecided a bit ago who didn’t follow news super closely and said education was their top issue. They looked completely taken a back when I mentioned how Trump has said he wants shut down the department of education (both from him directly and it’s Project 2025)
The average American is dumber than a sack of rotting racoon flesh. Im not even talking about your average Redneck cause at least our collective cultural madness makes us smart on somethings, no Im talking about your average middle management type who have no redeeming qualities. They are annoyingly too stupid to even grasp the concept of local government let alone who the bad guy is and think Trump is just some harmless boring politician.
I think the allure was, and maybe still is, that Trump was not a normal or boring candidate. His invective dispositions guaranteed controversy and mayhem, with damage to “the system” guaranteed.
People that stupid must exist, because the Democrats seem to prefer those hypothetical voters over voters who would like a little less capitalism and genocide please.
There’s no piece of news that could possibly change things at this stage, besides him dying or something.
Here’s hoping. There is one minor cohort of voters out there still to get; Democratic/ Democratic leaning voters who can’t bear to vote for genocide. All other matters are settled. The idea of “swing” voters is this weird political mythology that just doesn’t manifest in modern (post 2000) elections. You don’t win an election post 2000 chasing after the center, you win it by driving out your side. Trump understands that and he’s done probably the best job he could have to do so. If you are a Trump supporter or lean Trump; you are voting Trump this election cycle and you are voting. If you are a Democrat or Democrat leaning, you are almost assuredly voting Kamala, but at least some small fraction of Democratic aligned voters are still holding back over the Israel/ Gaza issue. That small fraction, maybe 2-5% of totals voters, are the last remainder to be “got”. They won’t be “got” by Trump, but may can be left on the table by Harris.
Dumping money into poor regions and the USA playing a proxy war with Russia is a game they both love to play. I don’t understand how you think it’s an election issue when this is what the US has been doing for forever.
At this point, if a voter is conflicted between a prosecutor who has spent the majority of her life putting criminals away and a racist who has several felony convictions and several more pending, they are effectively Trump voters.
It’s really that simple. Anyone else who tells you that they are undecided is because they are racist or they are okay with fascism.
I’d like to agree with this. But the fact is- we live in a reality in which not only a 34x convicted criminal/rapist is allowed to run for president, but has an actual chance to win. If this can happen, then so too can there be undecided voters.
Real question here is will this be enough to move the news cycle.
I don’t think his voters care.
cant reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into
thanks for the correction
I think you mean “can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into”.
But yes.
yes thank you
I think there’s a chance swaying a little more people than we might think - even if it’s a small percentage overall that can be swayed
Look for instances at the audience reactions to his lies about January 6th at his Univision Townhall. They show visable disgust
https://xcancel.com/MeidasTouch/status/1846746612980199817
Even if it’s not enough to make them vote the opposite way, it might be enough to make them not show up to vote against harris. Turnout changes in single digit percentages matters a lot
I mean thats just not what the data we have is saying.
Note that polling doesn’t capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting
The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. This year that’s flipped
Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there’s a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293768789.html#storylink=cpy
Overall, this will probably look like small movments if it materializes, but in elections won on close margins this absolutely matters
I agree thats prob the best proxy. I don’t know that we’ll get any exit polling data from GA or NC yet, but the turnout numbers hopefully look good good for Harris. She needs wide margins to keep this out of the SC.
deleted by creator
Correct, when “facts” come from TD they matter; otherwise your”facts” are safe to ignore
I’d imagine there’s still quite a lot of undecided voters out there. This might move them.
Who’s the type of person that’s still undecided but would be swayed by some new relevation on Trump? At this stage you either don’t know anything because you don’t follow the news, you already know he’s a criminal and a piece of shit, or you just think the media is making stuff up because “they’re out to get him”.
There’s no piece of news that could possibly change things at this stage, besides him dying or something.
I’d like to agree with this. But the fact is- we live in a reality in which not only a 34x convicted criminal/rapist is allowed to run for president, but has an actual chance to win.
If this can happen, then so too can there be undecided voters.
You make a frighteningly good point.
This may not sway them to vote Kamala, but it absolutely may sway them to abstain from voting.
I mean, think about all of those Michiganders who are staying out this year due to Gaza.
Negative press absolutely can sway voters, even this late in the game.
Yeah, agreed. The whole Democrat talking point about Trump being worse is just so played out. If you personally care about the issue and if both choices to vote for are pro genocide, it’s definitely valid to stay home or vote third party. It’s the only leverage they have.
Keep in mind it also gives people canvasing to lower-information voters something to mention
As an example, I was talking to someone undecided a bit ago who didn’t follow news super closely and said education was their top issue. They looked completely taken a back when I mentioned how Trump has said he wants shut down the department of education (both from him directly and it’s Project 2025)
The average American is dumber than a sack of rotting racoon flesh. Im not even talking about your average Redneck cause at least our collective cultural madness makes us smart on somethings, no Im talking about your average middle management type who have no redeeming qualities. They are annoyingly too stupid to even grasp the concept of local government let alone who the bad guy is and think Trump is just some harmless boring politician.
I think the allure was, and maybe still is, that Trump was not a normal or boring candidate. His invective dispositions guaranteed controversy and mayhem, with damage to “the system” guaranteed.
People that stupid must exist, because the Democrats seem to prefer those hypothetical voters over voters who would like a little less capitalism and genocide please.
I want my genocides with a side of handwringing, please
100%.
Here’s hoping. There is one minor cohort of voters out there still to get; Democratic/ Democratic leaning voters who can’t bear to vote for genocide. All other matters are settled. The idea of “swing” voters is this weird political mythology that just doesn’t manifest in modern (post 2000) elections. You don’t win an election post 2000 chasing after the center, you win it by driving out your side. Trump understands that and he’s done probably the best job he could have to do so. If you are a Trump supporter or lean Trump; you are voting Trump this election cycle and you are voting. If you are a Democrat or Democrat leaning, you are almost assuredly voting Kamala, but at least some small fraction of Democratic aligned voters are still holding back over the Israel/ Gaza issue. That small fraction, maybe 2-5% of totals voters, are the last remainder to be “got”. They won’t be “got” by Trump, but may can be left on the table by Harris.
Yeah anyone with a brain knows that it would be worse under a republican.
People decrying genocide aren’t being honest. They know who the real warmongers are.
I’m sure calling people who oppose genocide dishonest is gathering heaps of voters for Kamala.
Dumping money into poor regions and the USA playing a proxy war with Russia is a game they both love to play. I don’t understand how you think it’s an election issue when this is what the US has been doing for forever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars
You can’t fix this with one vote.
At this point, if a voter is conflicted between a prosecutor who has spent the majority of her life putting criminals away and a racist who has several felony convictions and several more pending, they are effectively Trump voters.
It’s really that simple. Anyone else who tells you that they are undecided is because they are racist or they are okay with fascism.
My response to a similar rebuttal:
There will always be a grey area.
deleted by creator
Trump voters won’t care. But some republicans that lean centrist do exist, maybe it’ll finally convince them to have some decency.