To expand on this slightly, if Harris wins Texas, that plus the blue states puts her at 266. Any one swing state would be enough to put her past 270, even Nevada which has only 6 electoral votes. So unless Trump can flip a blue state, he would have to win all the swing states.

While that scenario isn’t impossible, it’s extremely unlikely that Texas would have such a huge and unexpected surge for the Democrats while they are simultaneously having a disastrous performance everywhere else. It’s not like the Harris campaign has been dumping all of its resources into Texas, quite the opposite.