Opinion | Nate Silver: My Gut Says Trump. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine.
www.nytimes.com
A 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong.

Nate Silver’s essay discusses the limitations of gut instincts in election predictions, emphasizing that while polls in battleground states show a tight race, no one should trust their “gut” predictions. Silver’s “gut” leans toward Trump, but he stresses that polls are complex and often subject to errors like nonresponse bias. Both Trump and Harris could overperform based on various polling dynamics. He also warns of potential polling herding, which could lead to a larger-than-expected victory for either candidate. Ultimately, the outcome remains highly uncertain.

  • @MajinBlayze
    1•2 months ago

    While i think that’s true to an extent, I’m not convinced that the pressure within a state to encourage campaigning will overcome the establishment party’s desire for power.

    I would love to be proven wrong on this though

    For context, I say this as a citizen of a very, very GOP dominated state. I really can’t see us joining the compact and then maintaining that in any hypothetical near-future political environment where any non-republucian wins the popular vote, and gains our electors through the compact.

    • @DomeGuy
      2•2 months ago

      Depending on your state that’s probably true… Unless, like Georgia (or maybe Texas soon) you have an even where a Red-controlled state goes Blue by a thin majority and the NPV keeps special attention away from them.

      I can honestly see Texas republicans joining the NPV if they go POTUS-blue just once. Especially if there’s any downballot effect.