Something is wrong with this split-screen picture. On one side, former president Donald Trump rants about mass deportations and claims to have stopped “wars with France,” after being described by his longest-serving White House chief of staff as a literal fascist. On the other side, commentators debate whether Vice President Kamala Harris performed well enough at a CNN town hall to “close the deal.”
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Let’s review: First, Harris was criticized for not doing enough interviews — so she did multiple interviews, including with nontraditional media. She was criticized for not doing hostile interviews — so she went toe to toe with Bret Baier of Fox News. She was criticized as being comfortable only at scripted rallies — so she did unscripted events, such as the town hall on Wednesday. Along the way, she wiped the floor with Trump during their one televised debate.
Trump, meanwhile, stands before his MAGA crowds and spews nonstop lies, ominous threats, impossible promises and utter gibberish. His rhetoric is dismissed, or looked past, without first being interrogated.
Looking at the fivethiryeight predictions pages, Trump already has a lock or lean right on 262 votes, and Harris is at 226. Harris has to take Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan or its over, and her voters are in disarray and are half hearted while trumps always vote stronger than polling indicates. It looks to be effectively over unless Harris makes some big changes to energize her base. She’s sure as hell not going to get anything by pissing off even more people by digging rightward, but I’d bet real money that thats what she will try.
If she’d pledge to stop the weapons flow on day 1 she’d have the race, but she wont do that, for whatever reason.
I think she’ll take Michigan.