Vantage Data House
app.vantagedatahouse.com

Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat’s favor.

I don’t know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

  • @just_another_person
    2•13 hours ago

    Well, it makes sense, on one hand, but not in another.

    Where it makes sense:

    • the population centers are pro-Dem.
    • DeSantis is wildly unpopular with everybody.
    • FL businesses benefit from immigrant agriculture workers only second to CA.
    • Abortion is on the ballot

    Where it doesn’t make sense:

    • Gerrymandered County distribution basically makes electing Harris basically impossible right now
    • People have been moving away from the coastal cities
    • An influx of MAGA people moving to FL

    It’s less likely to happen. Not impossible. AZ is way more likely.

    • @the_tab_key
      6•12 hours ago

      Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.

      • @[email protected]
        6•10 hours ago

        It does when your nearest polling station is across town. This is one of the many games they play in districting.

        • @the_tab_key
          2•9 hours ago

          Yeah, but that’s “easy” to do without gerrymandering as well.