The really optimistic-for-Harris forecast I’ve cited a few times has even odds for Harris and Trump on NC. Basically if we don’t see huge turnout numbers it’s Trump’s. The best we can hope for is that Robinson really, really put people off of voting.
It’s also difficult to believe that statistically significant numbers of registered Democrats would vote for Trump, while it wouldn’t be a surprise for statistically significant numbers of registered Republicans voting for Harris.
It’s low odds for sure, but early turnout is high. NC is always a tug-of-war between urban and rural, so this is nothing new and why they’re concentrating on the populated areas. Between good turnout, potential Republicans showing up but not voting for Trump necessarily, and hopefully limited disfranchising of voters in certain demographic areas like in the past…it’s not over. And hey, anything helps the popular vote count regardless.
Obama’s win in 2008 was close and not a cakewalk either.
There was no way NC was going to vote for her. They’ll reject the batshit crazy governor, but they won’t vote for a Democratic President.
Look at the history:
2020 - Trump
2016 - Trump
2012 - Romney
2008 - Obama
2004 - Bush
2000 - Bush
1996 - Dole
1992 - Bush
1988 - Bush
1984 - Reagan
1980 - Reagan
1976 - Carter
1972 - Nixon
1968 - Nixon
The really optimistic-for-Harris forecast I’ve cited a few times has even odds for Harris and Trump on NC. Basically if we don’t see huge turnout numbers it’s Trump’s. The best we can hope for is that Robinson really, really put people off of voting.
Women are leading the early voting 55% to 44%.
Don’t count her out just yet, homey.
Conservative women still won’t vote for a Democrat.
Just need a few here and a few there, and it’s doable.
The current tally:
33% Dem
34% Rep
33% Other.
It’s definitely doable.
It’s also difficult to believe that statistically significant numbers of registered Democrats would vote for Trump, while it wouldn’t be a surprise for statistically significant numbers of registered Republicans voting for Harris.
It’s low odds for sure, but early turnout is high. NC is always a tug-of-war between urban and rural, so this is nothing new and why they’re concentrating on the populated areas. Between good turnout, potential Republicans showing up but not voting for Trump necessarily, and hopefully limited disfranchising of voters in certain demographic areas like in the past…it’s not over. And hey, anything helps the popular vote count regardless.
Obama’s win in 2008 was close and not a cakewalk either.