I just learned last night that there’s a pattern called the “red mirage”, apparently well known but new to me, that happens reliably on US national election nights. Smaller counties with fewer people finish their vote counts sooner than larger counties, so they report earlier. Since more Republicans live in low-population areas and more Democrats live in denser urban areas, this means a wave of republican votes comes in early, creating what’s called the “red mirage”, followed by a wave of democratic votes. This makes Republican candidates look like they’re ahead.
Trump counted on this in 2020 and probably in 2016. When he announces an early victory while the “red mirage” is still happening (assuming it even does this time) many of his followers will call it a night. When they hear Harris has won it will reinforce Trump’s lie, because in their minds they already “saw” him win.
I just learned last night that there’s a pattern called the “red mirage”, apparently well known but new to me, that happens reliably on US national election nights. Smaller counties with fewer people finish their vote counts sooner than larger counties, so they report earlier. Since more Republicans live in low-population areas and more Democrats live in denser urban areas, this means a wave of republican votes comes in early, creating what’s called the “red mirage”, followed by a wave of democratic votes. This makes Republican candidates look like they’re ahead.
Trump counted on this in 2020 and probably in 2016. When he announces an early victory while the “red mirage” is still happening (assuming it even does this time) many of his followers will call it a night. When they hear Harris has won it will reinforce Trump’s lie, because in their minds they already “saw” him win.